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El Niño is now stronger than at any point in the last 1,000 years, study finds
“One more warning sign here of what we’re facing in a warmer world.”
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This year is going to be fucked up.
hurricanes are also alot stronger under higher temps too, floridians can ignore global warming all they want, they wont have a state soon.
No, this is incorrect. El Niño weakens Atlantic Hurricanes and strengthens Pacific Hurricanes/Typhoons. We’re in peak hurricane season right now for the Atlantic and we’re only up to E named storms, and there’s only one right now. This is going to be an extraordinarily calm hurricane season.
Under status quo conditions yes, but we have passed beyond the point where the status quo pattern matching descriptions we have had about climatic swings are becoming less and less relevant as the system changes.
It will probably be a relatively calm hurricane season, but we really don’t know anymore just look at sea surface temperatures, we aren’t in the same regime anymore, the oceans are fundamentally changed at a general level in terms of heat exchange and weather interaction.
One of the least appreciated parts about Climate Change is how the increase in chaos makes some of our prior pattern matching/predictive capacity obsolete and irrelevant because the systems physically become more chaotic and swingey.
How so? I thought we were past the worst of it. Certainly unlikely to see heatwaves as severe as they were a month or two ago and we have finally had a decent amount of rain for the few plants still alive. My garden is slowly returning to green, although it also means weeds are returning so I probably need to clear them at some point. Free compost.
Corals there grow one to two centimeters a year, laying down a calcium carbonate skeleton with a chemistry that depends on the water it formed in. In these skeletons, Cole and her colleagues looked at the strontium-to-calcium ratio and at different isotopes of oxygen because both track temperature. “As temperatures get warmer, we get less strontium in the coral,” Cole said. Sampling the extracted cores of fossilized corals millimeter by millimeter yields more than a dozen measurements per year—a monthly temperature log for the life of the coral colony.
Living colonies cover recent decades and can be checked against instrument data. The deeper history comes from dead coral heads, which can be dated using uranium-thorium methods to within a few years, even as far back as 500 years. “We were also able to find corals that are dead and washed up on the beach,” Cole said. “They may be 100 years old, 200 years old, or 900 years old, or even older.”
The result of sampling corals was a patchy but long temperature log—28 time-separated series from five islands, covering scattered years back to around 1100 CE. Set against that baseline, the last four decades look rather strange.
Fascinating stuff, we can almost map it to the Norman Conquest. Does anyone know if we have this data openly available anywhere?
DOI for Recent strengthening of eastern Pacific ENSO in the last millennium paleorecord is paywalled, unfortunately
Recent strengthening of eastern Pacific ENSO in the last millennium paleorecord is paywalled
what an absurd sentence
Can it be strong enough to take out Florida or at least Trump compound.
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