Geopolitics

Robert Putnam’s two-level game framework captures this trap precisely: leaders must simultaneously satisfy international negotiating partners and domestic audiences, and when those two demands pull in opposite directions, the leader is paralyzed. That gives him the power to block any deal that falls short of his conditions, but not the leverage to deliver the outcome those conditions require.

Internationally, there is no consensus that this is World War III. Instead, leaders haggle over next moves, play footsie with Putin, and debate whether to fund Ukraine’s struggle as opposed to Israel’s, as though the same Evil wasn’t behind all conflicts. Hopefully, both wars will conclude, and global tectonic plates will shift. Russian and Iranian armed forces will shrink. Iran will turn over its enriched uranium. Russia will be battered, sanctioned, and isolated until the war ends. And once Moscow loses or quits, Putin will no longer be its leader, and Russia will split along ethnic lines into many smaller nation-states. Its nuclear arsenal will be secured and dismantled.

Political constraints remain a central factor in the SAMP/T acquisition’s progression, as France previously blocked the SAMP/T acquisition due to disagreements linked to Türkiye’s military operations in northern Syria, maritime disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean, and broader geopolitical tensions.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Daniel Byman, Tyler McBrien, and Natalie Orpett to talk through aspects of the week’s biggest Iran-focused news stories, including:

The last time a US president visited another country during its election campaign, in any capacity, was in 1996 when Democrat Bill Clinton traveled to Israel. During meetings with incumbent Prime Minister Shimon Peres, Clinton spoke favorably of Peres and his Labor party as reliable US allies, but did not take a position on which political party or candidates he or the US supported in Israel’s election campaign in progress at the time.

Beirut’s southern suburbs, known colloquially as Dahieh, have also been heavily targeted. That’s significant because this residential area was where the Israeli military first used the “Dahieh Doctrine” two decades ago.

Economists predict that other nations with thinner margins that rely on LPG imports through the Persian Gulf could see similar cooking gas shortage patterns in the near future — among those in Asia are Thailand, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Indonesia. Countries with relatively strong economic growth and ongoing industrialization, such as Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, are also likely to face significant access challenges. These countries don’t depend on the Middle East for fuel to prepare food, but they do depend on the region for a stable energy supply, which, when disrupted, can show up in escalating grocery costs.

https://archive.ph/Tcpdv

“Whole Cemetary Of Skeletons Falling Out Of The Wardrobe”

“If you think about who’s really incentivized to deescalate right now, not many. Iran’s happy for this to continue. Israel’s happy for it to continue. U.S. doesn’t seem to care. It doesn’t affect them. And you have China, China maybe doesn’t want it but Russia is benefitting like more than anybody. So it’s really Qatar that needs to just deescalate for their own security. Kuwait’s fucked. Bahrain’s fucked, but they’re not really players.”

If this was anyone else, we’d say they’re losing control

A futuristic vehicle that nonetheless charts the political swings of the 20th century in a simple story of its design, development and subsequent disappearance from Ukraine’s industrial production capacity for entirely political reasons… the vehicle itself still being as relevant as it was when it was first was developed in the 1980s.

By 2025, scholars identified an entire movement of “LSCO lawyering” [*Large Scale Combat Operations*] that seeks “to reframe existing, well-established rules, not by changing them outright but by stripping them to their most minimal defensible core.” This movement was said to have reacted to “a dangerous misalignment between current legal expectations and the demands of high-intensity war against a peer adversary.”

The Dark Eagle Long-Range Hypersonic Missile represents the first operational ground-launched hypersonic strike system fielded by the U.S. Army. It combines a large-diameter booster with the C-HGB, which separates after boost phase and transitions into a hypersonic glide profile. Unlike traditional ballistic missiles that follow predictable parabolic trajectories, Dark Eagle uses a depressed, maneuverable flight path, allowing lateral and vertical adjustments during flight. This capability enhances survivability and enables precise engagement of defended targets within minutes, significantly compressing the adversary’s reaction time.

Damn sucks for you russia.

The really frustrating beyond this war being a pointless tragedy is that the water is getting seriously muddied here. The media will claim this is proof the US does not have Air Dominance, which is definitely true in a very real way, obviously, but also the US has already dropped a cataclysmic amount of bombs on Iran and run roughshod over the entire country destroying everything like a human hurricane of senseless evil. The US established enough Air Dominance to do that, which is more Air Dominance than any nation could ever need unless the objective is simply to create and sustain a failed state which is the explicit goal of Israel and by extension the US.

A major moment for the UAE, we have truly entered a new era where smaller countries can field homegrown air defense systems without needing a great power to do it for them.

This will be one of the facts gestured to by history books to explain how the US had become such an incompetent, dysfunctional superpower. There are ways to defend against this that Ukraine knows, that even many elements of the US military know, clearly competence wasn’t important in this chain of decisions however.

The move, still under evaluation, would mark the first time ATR aircraft are assembled in India and reflects a broader shift towards local manufacturing driven by both policy and market demand.

The end of the tank has been greatly exaggerated. Believe it has come to pass and you will miscalculate geopolitical power by a massive margin.

Probably one of the most geopolitically relevant aircraft on earth.

[Trump] is largely powerless to bring to an end an illegal war he started. Others now dictate events. Israel, his chief ally in the war, and Iran, his official enemy, hold all the important cards. Trump, despite his bravado, is being dragged along in their tailwind.

Do not believe anyone who says the US is planning on de-escalating when this is happening.

This is a massive deployment.

Wars are often not easy to judge because the chaos, conflict, and disruption they trigger will yield consequences that last for years, if not decades. It’s easy to gawk at Pentagon videos of Tomahawks raining “death and destruction from above,” as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth calls it, and hail the war machine.

Small business/private jets have very quickly become some of the most geopolitically decisive military platforms on earth.

https://archive.ph/4MI3X

Is this the beginning of a new coalition of nations that can counter balance the desire to go to war that the most powerful nations of the world such as the US and russia cannot suppress? A desire for war supported by equally powerful nations such as China and India that cannot resist but inflame the war for their own interests even as they “stand on the sidelines” remaining “neutral”?

The permanent buzzing is integral to Israel’s strategy. Sometimes, even when bombs aren’t dropped, at night the drones remain low and loud overhead. “Every night my son is scared,” said Ali, a delivery man outside a cafe where we sit each morning. “He holds on to me so tight.”

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the face of various Iranian military capability threats has underlined the return to prominence of mine warfare as both a military-operational and politico-strategic tool. Despite the talk of drones, hypersonic missiles, and other new technologies, and of shifts to ‘hybrid’ force structures and ways of warfare, the humble sea mine continues to shape modern naval operations. Being an asymmetric threat, it is perhaps no surprise, thus, that it does so in a disproportionate way.

After US President Donald Trump’s attempt to shift responsibility for unblocking the Strait of Hormuz to allies in Europe, as well as to Japan, Australia, and Canada, failed, preparations for missions to unblock the strait did not stop.

As for Iran, it has long since acquired for Americans the status of a myth rather than an actual nation and continues to occupy a twisted place in the national psyche. All 52 of the hostages taken in that country’s 1979 revolution were, in fact, released on President Ronald Reagan’s inauguration day in 1981. For him, that was a valuable piece of theater, supplied by the very people we were still calling terrorists.

If Iran ignores the deadline, the first rung is predictable: US strikes on Iranian power plants. But the next steps are far less controllable.

However, despite rejecting the peace deal, “Iranian officials nevertheless signaling privately that they are open to negotiations, raising the prospect of a cessation in hostilities, Israel moved to step up its efforts to destroy as much of Iran’s military capabilities as possible,” The New York Times reported.

In my opinion all signs point to Israel dropping a nuclear bomb on Iran, especially if Trump tries to de-escalate the war.

Strong title but the criticism is warranted.

https://archive.ph/2n57V

The central problem posed by this conflict is not only the immediate security risk to GCC states caught in the crossfire. It is the strategic opportunity cost – the quiet, unquantifiable loss of a historic window to transform the region into a permanent hub of global infrastructure, finance and technology.

It has also occluded something deeper: the human decisions that led to the killing of between 175 and 180 people, most of them girls between the ages of seven and 12.

Iran is unlikely to forfeit that leverage without major concessions, analysts say. That is especially so, given how Iran feels the war has helped it win some economic relief that it didn’t get through diplomacy. On Friday, the Trump administration temporarily waived sanctions on the purchase of 140 million barrels of Iranian oil at sea in an attempt to ease oil prices

It is a strange reality we exist in.

These statements, along with the decision to postpone strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, generated considerable diplomatic optimism. Global markets responded positively to what was perceived as a sign of de-escalation.

Still wanna buy the F35?

Erdogan said the war, while driven by Israel, was exacting costs paid by the entire world. “The war is Netanyahu’s war for political survival, but the price is being borne by eight billion people,” he said. He called for the military campaign led by what he described as Netanyahu’s “massacre network” to be halted immediately in the name of regional peace and humanity.

Other Democrats, though, only seemed to be concerned with giving the administration a hard time about how they’re waging the war. Did Trump understand that Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz? If not, why not? Did he understand how extensive Iran’s retaliation might be against American assets in the Gulf monarchies? If not, why not? Did Gabbard and Ratcliffe not brief him appropriately, or did Trump just not listen?

Following the start of the Gaza genocide in October 2023, Israel’s political and military leaders greedily seized on what they saw as an opportunity to reshape the Middle East based on their own interests, regardless of international law and whatever suffering this campaign might cause.

The man who oversaw the negotiations between the US and Iran into their final hours last month has now publicly declared that the Islamic Republic is not the one responsible for the war the US and Israel began on 28 February.

Europe is likely to maintain its distance from the war, but by retreating from its commitment to international law, it risks weakening its position in confronting violations by both the United States and Russia. Furthermore, this new major split in transatlantic relations could cause headaches for Europeans in the period ahead.

Alongside MARTE, several other projects are aimed at developing next-generation European tanks.

There is no credible reason to believe Trump, US officials or Israel when they say this will be quick, this is a forever war through and through.

Trump has used “negotiations” as cover for military strikes three times in the past year. In January, US officials indicated they were seeking negotiations with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro hours before the raid in which he was kidnapped by US special forces. In June 2025, while indirect talks with Iran were ongoing, seven B-2 bombers hit Iran’s nuclear facilities in Operation Midnight Hammer. On February 28, the US murdered Iran’s supreme leader and launched the current war while negotiators were engaged in talks in Geneva that had concluded just two days earlier. Every time, Trump talked peace while plotting a criminal war of aggression.

Turkey may be our best hope here.

This is headed towards a bad place really fast.

But as the region becomes engulfed by a conflagration of increasingly apocalyptic proportions—a regional war with Iran was, until recently, considered to be political and strategic suicide—the narrative of ‘Bibi the Pragmatist’ has become an untenable alibi.

https://ghostarchive.org/archive/tuuDr

In a world ablaze, Europe’s decades of weak leadership and myopic policies have placed it in the hands of those it is dependent on – in particular, an increasingly desperate US.

Everybody keeps talking about the rise of the German military, the German military doesn’t have Apaches and they foolishly have no plans to acquire them.

KLEINKARLBACH, Germany, March 23 (Reuters) - In a spartan office adorned with plastic pots and detergent packaging at German chemical company Gechem, owner Martina Nighswonger feels she’s running out of options.

Today we’re looking into a new red line drawn by President Trump where he says Iran needs to open the Strait of Hormuz or we’ll start hitting their energy infrastructure. This risks a broader escalation in the region and Iran has already said they’ll consider all energy in the area viable targets. This comes as additional US forces surge into the area.

https://archive.ph/3hlyZ

It is incomprehensible that a UN entity has been allowed to be crushed as Unrwa has, in violation of international law, with total impunity, and with staff and Palestinian communities paying an unacceptable price.

According to the Iranian authorities, 168 people were killed in the attack. On 3 March 2026, the judiciary’s Mizan News Agency announced that at least 110 school children were among the dead, comprising 66 boys and 54 girls, as well as 26 teachers and four parents. On 7 March 2026, the authorities published a collage containing the images of 119 children killed. Due to the ongoing internet blackout and no access to the country to inspect the site and interview affected people, Amnesty International is unable to independently corroborate the number of people killed.

also see. https://thedefensepost.com/2026/03/21/us-more-marines-middle-east/

“This is a huge problem because it completely obscures accountability. There’s no way of knowing if attacks are deliberate, if they are intelligence failures or if the AI is innacurate. The black box nature of AI makes it particularly opaque.”

The missiles did not hit their target; one failed in flight, and a US warship intercepted the second. Analysts note that striking Diego Garcia at all would require gutting the payload of Iran’s most capable long-range missile, the Khorramshahr-4, to a fraction of its normal warhead weight, raising serious questions about accuracy over open ocean.

None of the military options address the insurance and market dimension – and shippers, not the Pentagon, ultimately decide whether tankers sail.

Just like when you get kicked out of the cool group in middle school for being a bully and you loudly reclaim “everyone is using SECRET CODES to talk behind my back!”.

I do very strongly disagree with Samantha Power’s justification for staying in, which, as you said, is based on the idea that she was able to do more by staying in than she could have done by leaving. Whereas, in fact, Gaza had the highest rate of starvation ever recorded globally. The idea that she was able to do some kind of good by staying in is nonsensical, whereas the idea of her leaving would have sent such a clear signal.

Overall, the effect of closing the Strait is an imponderable that was previously not considered. Now it is going to be a possibility even after shipping is restored, and so long as the present Iranian regime remains in place. To that extent, the oil market will have to change, as insurance (and thus shipping) costs factor in the possibility of closure. The increased costs will have a corresponding effect on the global oil price, with the higher price the cause of much grief among developing countries.

Doğru lives in Berlin and is much more affected by the sanctions than others. “You can’t even buy me a coffee,” says Doğru during an interview in Berlin. “In theory, I’m not even allowed to help myself to anything in the fridge after my wife went shopping.” The German Bundesbank, which is in charge of enforcing sanctions, granted him an exemption to withdraw a minimum subsistence allowance of €506 a month from his bank account. And even this tiny sum was temporarily blocked by his bank. “I can’t feed my newborn babies,” says Doğru. “On an existential level, you’re reduced to zero.”

The challenge, however, is not resolved by rejecting extraterritorial self-defense outright. Contemporary security threats posed by organized non-state armed groups are real, and international law must remain capable of addressing them. What is required instead is discipline: a restrained understanding of “unwilling or unable” as a contextual argument within necessity, clear acknowledgment of when armed conflict exists, and consistent application of legal constraints regardless of the actor invoking them.

It really frustrates me that the entire world seems to be almost completely dismissing the serious possibility the US will conduct ground operations in Iran.

It is an odd moment in history that helicopters have never had more of an impact on geopolitics and yet they have never been more ignored by the world as a significant player in geopolitics. It is truly incredibly to look back on the Venezeula operation and see the rest of the world is still deluding itself about the dominance of rotary wing military power.